‘Tis the Season for Weather-Driven Price Moves

The early cold weather had a significant impact on prices with the prompt gas month reaching almost $5.00/MMBtu in November. Storage withdrawal reported for the week ending November 16 was well above expectations at 134 Bcf. The storage inventory deficit has grown to 19% versus the 5 year average. Market prices for 2019 continue to trade well above 2020 through 2023, indicating the tighter supply conditions for this winter and pointing to likely support for prices throughout next year as the market looks to re-establishing a stronger inventory balance during the 2019 injection season. Bottom line – in most cases you should have 2019 electric and gas prices largely hedged to avoid volatility to next year’s energy budget. The outer years still present an attractive opportunity to contract out longer to take advantage of historically low natural gas and electric prices.

12 Month-Natural Gas Forward Strip ($/MMBTU)

 

Natural Gas Calendar Year Average Commodity Cost ($/MMBTU)

 


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